Estudiante de Negocios Internacionales, Universidad EAFIT, Colombia
The beginning of a new year comes with different analysis about a variety of perspectives that will, to a certain degree, define the way in which decisions will be made during the year. The optimistic perspective about how global economy will be during 2014 has been discussed since last year, as economic indexes get better. The different symptoms that prove this recovery are very good news for the international economy, but there are some risks that must be faced if a sustainable, and inclusive growth is to be achieved.
The Managing Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, presented an overview of the way in which international economy will function through 2014. In her speech, Chistine Lagarde talks about the possible end of the “seven miserable years”, which came after the financial and economic crisis of 2008. Perspectives for most of the economies are better: the United States is showing an increase in its economic growth due to the private demand, the Euro Area is getting back from the recession, and the emerging markets will keep on presenting positive economic indicators.
Even if the emergence of a new positive scenario cannot be denied, it is important to note that it is also creating some risks that arise from the imbalances in social, and economic development. The IMF highlights some that jeopardize the global stability: the first one is related with the disparity between economic growth, and an actual job, the second one is the deceleration that emerging markets are facing, and the third one is the volatility of the capital flows; growth is still “low, fragile, and uneven”.
In this sense, despite the good perspective, international economy should remain vigilant; the shift from the “seven miserable years” to the “strong years” can only be reached through the acceleration of reforms that boost the labor market participation, and enhance competitiveness around the world: the . The recommendation that Christine Lagarde presents is that international institutions serve not only as a discussion forum, but as a support for a collective response to crisis. Although, this can only be possible with the effective coordination, and cooperation between countries: global solidarity for sustainable and inclusive development.
IMF's Lagarde on The Global Economy in 2014, January 15, 2014. Available in: http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=3059557762001