Incertidumbre en la economía mundial: países emergentes y en vía de desarrollo

Artículo de opinión por: Juliana Maya Herrera*   (jmayahe@eafit.edu.co) 

Analista del Observatorio en Comercio, Inversión y Desarrollo

La seguridad financiera mundial en 2016 está causando preocupación en las economías, este es un año en el que hemos podido presenciar una incertidumbre frente a factores que se están evidenciando. Estos están despertando una gran amenaza a variedad países, debido al desplome del petróleo desde mediados de 2014, enormes deudas acumuladas en las economías emergentes, gran salida de capitales, la apreciación del dólar, salida de flujos de los mercados emergentes, principalmente en Latinoamérica, caída de los precios de los commodities, y por último la desaceleración del crecimiento económico en China y depreciación del yuan en un 2% (CNN Expansión, 2015) Todos estos factores hacen que exista más riesgo en la economía global generando desestabilización en los países emergentes y en vía de desarrollo. 

China, el gigante asiático es una de las causas más influyentes en la situación actual, puesto que ha entrado en un período de crecimiento más lento evidenciado en su PIB (Producto Interno Bruto). Esta economía, creció un 6,8% en los últimos tres meses de 2015, siendo la cifra más baja en un periodo trimestral desde la crisis mundial de 2008 (LIY, 2016). Como lo indica un estudio realizado por el periódico español, La Vanguardia, a pesar de que su crecimiento se ha debilitado pasando de un 7,3% en el 2014 a un 6,9% en el 2015, el incremento anual más bajo en 25 años, sigue siendo un país clave para la economía mundial. Según el periódico El Economista, el índice general de la Bolsa de Shanghái, cerró en enero de 2016 con una caída de un 2,92%, siendo este indicador no muy favorecedor para los inversionistas. 

"El enfriamiento chino está poniendo presión en los (países) exportadores de materias primas y de bienes de consumo", recordó un análisis del gigante bancario HSBC (EFE, 2016). Como podemos ver en el análisis que realiza la CEPAL para América Latina y el Caribe, el crecimiento de las exportaciones de China se ha ralentizado debido a los precios más bajos y una menor demanda de sus socios comerciales. Los exportadores de esta potencia, están reemplazando gradualmente los insumos importados con los producidos localmente. Esto ha ocurrido principalmente en los países latinoamericanos especializados en exportación de productos básicos. El declive de la demanda global ha arrastrado a la baja los precios de las materias primas de manera significativa, especialmente de petróleo, carbón, cobre, hierro, zinc, plata, níquel, oro, soja, maíz, algodón, azúcar, café y productos de pescado. Esta situación ha afectado a los países con economías enfocadas en a estos commodities porque tienen una estructura de exportación de productos básicos y por otro lado, tienen una limitada producción de productos de mayor tecnología, cuyos precios han caído menos. (United Nations, 2015).

Existe un temor global relacionado con lo que pueda pasar en un futuro y cómo la situación actual puede afectar posteriormente las economías. No obstante, es indudable que la situación de China es el epicentro de muchas consecuencias que se están presentando actualmente haciendo que el panorama global no sea muy alentador. Toda esta progresiva ralentización se debe en gran parte a la trasformación de este país causando: el aumento de salarios, el fomento del consumo interno y la innovación dentro de esta región. La complejidad de este asunto global, es que un tema lleva a otro, y al final todo se relaciona entre si. Por eso, es que todos los países incluyendo las economías emergentes y las sub-desarrolladas, se ven afectadas de una u otra manera

Referencias

Ambrós, I. (19 de 01 de 2016). El PIB de China creció un 6,9% en el 2015 la cifra más baja en 25 años. Recuperado el 20 de 02 de 2016, de La vanguardia.com: http://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20160119/301504123868/pib-china-crecio-6-9-2015-cifra-mas-baja-25-anos.html

CNN Expansión. (25 de Agosto de 2015). China devalúa el yuan para impulsar su economía. Recuperado el 22 de 02 de 2016, de CNN Expansión: http://www.cnnexpansion.com/economia/2015/08/11/china-devalua-el-yuan-para-impulsar-su-economia

EFE. (19 de 01 de 2016). Expectativa por PIB de China. Recuperado el 20 de 02 de 2016, de El nuevo diario : http://www.elnuevodiario.com.ni/economia/382601-expectativa-pib-china/

El Economista. (28 de 01 de 2016 ). Eleconomista.es. Recuperado el 22 de 02 de 2016, de Eleconomista.es: http://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/7309858/01/16/La-bolsa-de-Shanghai-cierra-con-una-caida-de-un-292-.html

Gakii, M. (21 de 01 de 2016). Foreign Direct Investments to fall further- UNCTAD. Recuperado el 20 de 02 de 2016 , de The star : http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/01/21/foreign-direct-investments-to-fall-further-unctad_c1279961

LIY, M. V. (19 de 01 de 2016). La economia china crece al ritmo más bajo de los últimos 25 años. Recuperado el 20 de 02 de 2016, de El País : http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2016/01/19/actualidad/1453184574_248440.html

United Nations. (2015). Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy. E.15.II.G.5.

Country brands: A paradigm change towards development

By: Carolina Herrera Cano (caroherca@gmail.com)

Universidad EAFIT

The promotion of countries through marketing strategies has become an important awareness of national governments; vital economic interests depend on the effectiveness of these initiatives. It is notable that commercial concerns of promoting products, places, and institutions are nowadays greater. In this sense, the creation of a country brand is an increasing practice within governments; it is undeniable that the use of commercial diplomacy is well established. The evaluation of country brands performance has always been from a commercial approach; it is easily identifiable in how country brands have been evaluated thorough the years. Although, there has been a paradigm change in how country brands are perceived (and evaluated), they are becoming a useful tool to promote a better quality of life within the country, and not only a way to increase tourism, investment, and exports.

The country brands are defined as governmental strategies implemented to capitalize the nation reputation of a given country in the international markets. Many authors recognize the importance of the country brands as a soft power tool used by governmental institutions to increase their influence in the international context, and consequently, to develop higher levels of competitiveness, institutional stability, and legal certainty (Lacouture, 2009). Since decades, this strategy has been used by many countries with the main purpose of economic growth, and international trade promotion (Echeverri, Estay-Niculcar, & Rosker, 2012). Nowadays, these objectives are usually undertaken through three specific dimensions, usually supported by the Ministries of Commerce: tourism attraction, foreign direct investment improvement, and exports promotion (Colombia Marca País, 2013). This results in a deliberate objective of communicating a country positive image abroad. Consequently, country brands work as a marketing strategy that serves fundamentally to the national commercial interests.

In order to determine the real advantages that the creation of a nation brand strategy has had in the international presence of a country, its position in the international markets is examined. The Country Brand Index, developed by Future Brand, the strategic consultant from Interpublic Group, analyzes the performance of the country brands around the world. The Country Brand Index uses quantitative research, opinions from experts, and massive digital surveys in order to create a ranking of the most effective strategies, and to identify which are the main challenges that each country brand has. Country brands have been evaluated only under almost the same indexes of any other commercial brand: levels of knowledge, familiarity, preference, considerations, number of recommendations, and active decisions to actually interact or visit the given country (Future Brand, 2013a).

The current commercial approach that governments have implemented regarding their relations with other countries responds to the necessity of guaranteeing certain levels of investment, tourism, and exports. Competition between country brands reflects competition between countries; in an increasing globalized world, with a constant danger of economic crisis, a strong nation brand strategy could represent the difference between visiting, investing or buying in a given country; despite competition between commercial brands does not have to be a zero-sum game (Frost, 2004). The question here is that despite the importance of commercial interests that every country has, country brands are not longer sources of capital flows.

The awareness over the use of country brands not only as promoters of tourism, invest, and exports, but as a way to improve quality of life, represents a change in the paradigm of how country brands were perceived. This perspective has also been promoted by the evaluation process developed by Future Brand. To this index, in terms of country brands performance, the most important aspect that should be taken into account today is their ability to improve the quality of life of its citizens (Future Brand, 2013b). In this way, figures regarding products’ demand abroad, number of foreign visitors, and money invested are not an end in its self, but a strategy to create better social conditions within the country.

That is why this index also takes into account the impact of country brands in aspects like: values system, quality of life, business culture, heritage and culture, and tourism which are not only fundamental to the commercial interests of the country, but also to the social conditions of nationals. As a matter of fact, the Country Brand Index measures the strength of a country brand base on its capacity to foster open discussion, individual rights, civil liberties, and social values. In this order of ideas, country brands increasingly pursue better social conditions, and not only commercial interests (Future Brand, 2013b).

This internal concern can also be seen in how country image is perceived today. Country reputation is a key concept that determines the strategies that implemented in the nation brand strategy. Although, during the last years, countries have noticed that reputation is not only a foreign. In this sense, the country brands are becoming increasingly important for national governments as a way to promote products, institutions, and even citizens both nationally, and internationally. Today, countries are conscious about the importance of making the country brand not only an international communication strategy, but a national effort towards an internal sense of belonging. These types of strategies improve security (which ultimately promotes also internal tourism), increase internal demand, and create institutional trust, also resulting in better social conditions concern (Echeverri, Estay-Niculcar,  & Rosker, 2012).

The effectiveness of country brands has eminently been a commercial concern; economic conditions make country relations a constant competition over tourism, investment, and exports. In this way, countries have understood that the effectiveness of country brands can be used to increase international capital flows. Nevertheless, during the last years governments have seen this strategy as a way to foster social and economic development within their countries. Through this strategy, and thanks to the new paradigms in country brands evaluations, governmental institutions can now access to the benefits of having a better position of their nation brand strategy in the international market, promoting an internal sense of belonging, and consequently improving development.

References

Colombia Marca País. (2013). Available online: http://www.colombia.co/. Accessed: May 5th, 2014.

Echeverri, L., Estay-Niculcar, C. A., & Rosker, E. (2012). Estrategias y experiencias en la construcción de marca país en América del Sur. Estudios Y Perspectivas En Turismo, 21(2), 288-305.

Frost, R. (2004). Maping a Country’s Future. BrandChannel.com. Available online: http://www.brandchannel.com/features_effect.asp?pf_id=206 . Retrieved: May 28th, 2014.

Future Brand. (2013a). Country Brand Index 2012-13. Available online: http://mouriz.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/cbi-futurebrand-2012-13.pdf. Accessed: May 5th, 2014.

Future Brand. (2013b). Country Brand Index Latinoamérica 2013. Available online: http://www.futurebrand.com/images/uploads/studies/cbi/CBI_Latinoamerica_2013.pdf. Accessed: May 5th, 2014.

Lacouture, M. C. (2009). Colombia es pasión, porque la mejor materia prima que tiene el país es la pasión de los colombianos. Latin Trade (Spanish), 17(2), 59-60.

How is the world doing in policy effectiveness?

Opinion article by: Catalina Tamayo Posada (catalinatamayop1@gmail.com)
Economics student at Universidad EAFIT, Medellin-Colombia.

Since the financial crisis in 2008, the world's economy has been in a constant state of change. While developed economies are struggling to maintain the levels of growth they had before the crisis, emerging and developing economies , in general, have been more effective smoothing the crisis effects in their economies.
This event has generated among the countries a sense of nonconformity towards the current monetary and financial system. “In 2008 and 2009, policymakers of several economically powerful countries had called for urgent reforms of the international monetary and financial system. However, since then, the momentum in pushing for the reform has all but disappeared from the international agenda. Consequently, the outlook for the world economy and for the global environment for development continues to be highly uncertain” (UNCTAD 2013:1). Clearly, there is a need of structural reforms for the purpose of improving economic performance in the international field.
The urgency of creating policies, in order to permeate the negative effect of the crisis, has led to the implementation of policies that have not been truly effective whether because they were designed from a merely economic perspective or because they were not addressed to attack the real causes of the crisis. According to Elinor Ostrom (1999:4), Nobel Prize in Economics in 2009, “Few policy situations are simple. Most involve knowledge from many different perspectives, activities are organized at multiple levels, and any given policy situation overlaps with other policy situations so that activities in one situation affect activities in another. No single discipline addresses all the issues that humans address when they interact in complex social situations. In order to understand what is actually going on in a policy area, as well as how things might proceed differently, it is important to incorporate input from multiple disciplines, multiple levels of activity, and multiple policy situations.” Creating policies is more than just looking at the surface of the problem, it is indispensable to dig deeper, to have an overview of the context of the determined moment and to try to predict people's reaction to that policy based on their culture, history, education levels, etc. (because ultimately is in them where relies the real end result).
Another considerable item for policymaker to keep in mind is that replicating models that worked in other countries won't necessarily work everywhere. Precisely because people's motivations and interests are different all across the world. “All policy situations are governed, for better or for ill, by institutional arrangements that are specific to the demands of a particular time, place, and people” (Ostrom, 1999:5).

Effective structural reforms to the international system are far from being a reality if all causes of the current crisis are not taken into account. Countries should not focus on conceiving several policies that do not have any long-term effects, but on designing some that can actually lead to economic growth and, of course, to sustainable development. There is still a long way to go.

References:

Ostrom, Elinor (1999). An Institutional Framework for Policy Analysis and Design. Available in: http://mason.gmu.edu/~mpolski/documents/PolskiOstromIAD.pdf

UNCTAD. (2013). Trade and development report, 2013. Nueva York y Ginebra: Naciones Unidas.

Las economías emergentes y las “nuevas economías de servicios”

Por: Nathalia Rios Ballesteros

Estudiante de Economía y Negocios Internacionales de la Universidad EAFIT, Colombia

El mercado de los servicios se postula actualmente como uno de los grandes retos a enfrentar para las economías emergentes del mundo. Aunque este mercado actúe como generador de eficiencia, crecimiento y bienestar económico; debido a su caracterización y el funcionamiento de sus mercados, su modo de suministro, su composición o estructura sectorial, su productividad factorial, su grado de intangibilidad y su interdependencia con el resto de la economía, este sector resulta ser un desafío innegable para el aparato productivo, tecnológico e innovador de estos países en donde el desarrollo de estos aspectos al igual que el fomento del sector terciario, queda en la mayoría de los casos, relegado a un segundo plano. En este sentido, aunque la participación en el empleo y los ingresos del sector servicios bordea cerca del 70%, tanto en países desarrollados como en aquellos en desarrollo, se sabe que el desempeño económico y el bienestar generado por el sector terciario no sólo depende de su capacidad para producir valor agregado. 

Hoy por hoy, el sector servicios representa alrededor del 70% de la producción en los países desarrollados, y el 50% del PIB de los países en desarrollo. Adicionalmente, representa el 20% del comercio mundial total y funciona como un catalizador de la economía en general, con lo cual, resulta indiscutible resaltar el hecho de que durante las últimas décadas su producción y comercio ha presentado un gran crecimiento debido, en parte, al desarrollo de tecnologías que han reducido los costos de transporte al igual que su disposición para sumarse al proceso de inclusión en los diferentes niveles de las cadenas de valor globales apenas incipientes en algunas economías emergentes.

De la misma manera, el desarrollo de los servicios se convierte a su vez en un factor determinante para potenciar el crecimiento de otros sectores -como el industrial y agropecuario- debido a su carácter de “sector intermediario”, ya que permite agregar valor en las diferentes etapas de producción en los bienes de consumo final a través de la provisión de actividades claves en los campos de servicios financieros, de transporte y de seguro, entre otros. Es por esto que, según lo afirma Deardoff (2000), considerar la liberalización del comercio de este sector como medida de acaparamiento y robustecimiento del mismo, no sólo genera ganancias en cuanto al perfeccionamiento de las ventajas comparativas de los países, debido a la tendencia a la fragmentación de los procesos manufactureros, sino que también disminuye las barreras no arancelarias que enfrentan los bienes tradicionales –dado a su status sui generis de intagibilidad-.

Es así como, debido a la creciente importancia del sector y a sus diferencias, no sólo con respecto al comercio y prestación de servicios per se, sino también respecto a su relación con el mercado de bienes tradicionales, es necesario entender, analizar y evaluar las características y particularidades del sector en términos de su producción, regulación y comercio, para generar políticas de estado que garanticen el continuo y duradero crecimiento de este sector, lo cual le permita a las economías emergentes entrar en el proceso de “desindustrialización” mientras poseen el privilegio de ser clasificadas como las “nuevas economías de servicios” del mundo.

Referencias

Alan V. Deardorff (2000). International Provision of Trade Services, Trade, and Fragmentatio. University of Chicago, Chigado, Estados Unidos. Revisado el 30 de Noviembre de 2013. Disponible en: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers451-475/r463.pdf 

---

Nota:

Todas las cifras fueron tomadas de la intervención realizada por la Señora Barbara D’Andrea de la Economic Research and Statistics de la OMC (WTO) para el UNCTAD Virtual-Institute study-tour para universidades colombianas en su cuarta versión (Noviembre 18-22 2013, Ginebra, Suiza). Disponible en: http://unctad.org/en/Pages/MeetingDetails.aspx?meetingid=369

Taking challenges: Absorbing economic benefits derived from trade and raising living standards.

Opinion article by: Catalina Tamayo Posada*(catalinatamayop1@gmail.com)
Economics student at EAFIT University, Medellin-Colombia.

The world, as it is today, is constantly changing in a scarcely imaginable way. New countries are economically emerging and they are changing all the structure of power in the world. An increase in the economical field should suppose an increase in the living standards of the societies. But, as some would argue, it has not been possible because of trade. But, is it?

Trade is a powerful weapon which can be extremely useful for a nation or it can actually destroy it. On the one hand, trade is a main factor in the search of new technologies; this is because companies do not want to be left behind and as a consequence they can increase their productivity. It can also be seen as an opportunity to specialize on what the country is good at, making it competitive in international markets. Adam Smith, the father of the economy, to this concern stated that “If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it of them with some part of the produce of our own industry employed in a way in which we have some advantage”(1776).

But, on the other hand, trade is growing and so is inequality. Most of the people are likely to blame trade for this problem, although trade is not the most important fact. “In general, technological change is found to be an important driver of inequality. It is also the case of other aspects of globalization like migration, FDI and other international capital flows contribute to increased inequality” (WTO, 2013:13).

Furthermore, trade must be followed by exceptionally well-design and coherent policies that lead towards sustainable development. Not to mention the need of a proper administration, free of corruption and focused on growing the living standards; the obligation to reinforce the institutions so that they can optimize all kinds of resources, economic and human resources, in order to make a more efficient and adequate distribution of the incomes resulting in the decrease of unemployment rates and therefore reducing the inequality. From a wider perspective, all of these effects, for the country, could be translated in economic growth, competitiveness, increases in FDI and sustainable development.

However, “Poor countries will usually need to create a range of other conditions before they can benefit from trade. Even the best conceivable trade policies aimed at reaping the benefits from trade are likely to be ineffective if unaccompanied by productive capacity and adequate infrastructure”. (The future of Trade, 2013:12). This means that it takes a huge effort to try to move forward and it also shows us that trade and investment go together and rely on each other.

Briefly, several challenges must be taken in order to truly get the benefits from trade and therefore eradicate poverty and raise living standards of the societies. This has been proved by the emerging economies.

References:

Smith, Adam. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Retrieved October 5, 2013 from the World Wide Web: http://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN13.html

World Trade Organization (WTO). (2013). The Future of Trade: The Challenges of Convergence. Report of the Panel on Defining the Future of Trade.

Global Trade as a lever for growth and employment

Opinion article by: Nathalia Rios Ballesteros* (nriosba@eafit.edu.co)
Economics student at Universidad EAFIT, Colombia

According to the European Commission (2010) in the past few years, global trade has expanded rapidly. From the late 1990s until now, the value of world merchandise trade grew by 73%. This growth has been mainly driven by growth in incomes and demand, falling in transport and communication costs, significant increases in foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging market economies, improvements in efficient economic policies along with the implementation of trade policies and reductions in tariff and non-tariff barriers without ignoring the increasing competitive pressures that drive the search and pace of innovation and the implementation of costcutting, outsourcing and economies of scale in many industries.

In this context, although it is difficult to make general statements about the impact of trade opening and its growth per se; trade should not be considered in isolation from national, international and global realities. In this sense, one can establish that “trade growth is not pursued for its own sake”[1]; it brings along a triple major benefit for the ongoing country: more economic growth; greater consumer welfare translated into higher incomes and lower prices of goods and increased in employment conditions – greater and better-paid jobs-.

As a matter of fact, U.S is the world's largest economy and the largest exporter and importer of goods and services nowadays, which implies an active and relevant role of trade as an important engine for its economic growth and employment market -considering that more than 30 percent of U.S. GDP is tied to international trade and investment, and more than one in five U.S. jobs are supported by trade according to the Trade Benefits America Coalition (2013)-. This is the reason why U.S. engagement in the international marketplace today, is more important to this nation’s economy than ever before, exhibiting and showing the key role that trade plays in the economic current situation of countries worldwide.

Moreover, trade openness stands as an important lever that lift developing countries out of poverty allowing them to reap and reproduce the benefits of globalization into their own economies, taking into account the strong increase in the share of this economies in the international trade flow . This rapid economic rise and increasing involvement in global trade of these emerging market economies -especially major performers such as the BRIC members- has made enormous contributions to growth, development and prosperity within these economies. As part of a comprehensive set of policies and internal circumstances, it has helped to lift millions out of poverty and spread the benefits of higher living standards through lower living costs. It has brought nations closer together, fostering mutual understanding and promoting world peace while equipping the involved countries with the necessary tools to meet the challenges carried along with the hazard of this economic activity; challenges towards jobless growth management, high unemployment, poverty, unequal distribution and allocation of resources, environment and sustainable development, and the role of trade routes as well as investment decisions in this context.

For all the above, and considering today’s climate of “weak economic recovery, high unemployment and pressure on public finances”[2], one of the effective solutions that governments might adopt to boost growth and employment could be to foster global trade thus keeping global markets open; which provides two important implications; a result and a challenge for the involved country. The result: better economic performance -trade and market openness becomes a more prevailing tool for generating better quality jobs and boosting the much-needed growth-; the challenge: to construct coherent national and international policy frameworks that seek and drive towards inclusive growth of trade among countries because “it is their design, not their absence, that makes the difference”[3].

References

European Commission. (2010). Trade as a driver of prosperity. Recuperado el 20 de 09 de 2013, de http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2010/november/tradoc_146940.pdf

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate (TAD). (Mayo de 2012). Better policies for better lives. Recuperado el 17 de Septiembre de 2013, de http://www.oecd.org/tad/tradedev/50447052.pdf

Trade benefits America Coalition. (2013). Trade benefits America|. Recuperado el 20 de 09 de 2013, de http://tradebenefitsamerica.org/contact

World Trade Organization (WTO). (2013). The Future of Trade: The Challenges of Convergence. Report of the Panel on Defining the Future of Trade.

---

[1] European Commission (2010)

[2] (OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate (TAD), 2012)

[3] (World Trade Organization (WTO), 2013)