Colombian elections 2014 and economic prospective

By: David Ricardo Murcia Sanchez

Political Sciences Student at Universidad EAFIT, Colombia

After a few days since the past legislative elections in Colombia, I feel the calm necessary to make an analysis of the scenarios it sketched for the nation’s forthcoming years. That calm can gain stronger basis now, after the official release of the Colombian economic growth in 2013 (4,3% (Portafilio, 2014)). But, before starting the argument, it is crucial to announce that the following analysis will be speculative, due to the fact that Registraduría Nacional have not published yet the official conformation of the congress, even though the pre-counting can be taken as a trustful outline.

The pre-counting of the national register agency of Colombia shows a scenario of continuity to the current government coalition[1], for the sum of 23.76 % of the votes (Registraduría Nacional, 2014) in Senate, and a steady 37.84% in the chamber of representatives. This trust backup to the current government, whose focus has centered in the stabilization of the economy, and the improvement of the Nation’s international relations (both economic and political), could drag to the country more investment, due to the government’s efforts to maintain a stable economy.

The present national government had had to face many economic instabilities. First, by receiving an economy just getting out from a decrease of 5.2 perceptual points between 2007 and 2009, managing to get up since its entrance in office (2010) 2.6 points. Second, the 2012 deceleration, due the various internal problems of the agro strike, and the dependency on commodities of the extractive industry. In 2012, the stronger sector was mining, with a 5,9 % share (Dinero, 2013). But mining was also the strongest one in 2011 with a share of 14,3 %, and then it was the principal cause of a high overall growth up to 6.6 % (see Table I).

Fortunately, the 2013 growth goes out of that dependence, bringing with it, construction as the leading sector (a share of 9,8 %), followed by social services, and agro (5,3 % and 5,2 % respectively). Then, mining comes just fourth (4,9 %) (Portafolio, 20014), and perhaps, it is the first step towards a new economic tendency. But I am not referring to construction as the sector in which the national economy should be focus (that could turn into a real sate bubble).

The interventions of the current government have been able to construct a stable economic structure that has sketched a good forthcoming for development. It could be foreseen in how the composition of the former year economic growth opens the doors to a more diversified economy, which central sector are intensive in the productions of labor, and therefore the split of the wealth.


[1] Which parties are Unidad Nacional, Partido Liberal, and Cambio Radical. It is important to say that part of the Partido Consevador is aligned with the government, but for the present analysis it is better to left them out, because the number of conservative congressman that will join the ruling alliance is still uncertain.

References

Dinero (2012) Economía colombiana creció 4% en 2012. (21 de Marzo de 2013). Dinero. Recuperado de: http://www.dinero.com/actualidad/economia/articulo/economia-colombiana-crecio-4-2012/172092

Portafolio (2013) La Economía Colombia creció 4,3 en el 2013 (20 de Marzo de 2014). Recuperado de: http://www.portafolio.co/economia/pib-colombia-2013

Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil. (9 marzo de 2014). Elecciones de Congreso y Parlamento Andino. Recuperado de: http://congreso2014.registraduria.gov.co/99CA/DCA9999999_L1.htm